2009 Kentucky Derby Early Contenders
Is it ever too early to talk about this? HRTV’s very talented handicapper Jon White has released his early Derby Top 10 list:

(1) Pioneerof the Nile
(2) Old Fashioned
(3) I Want Revenge
(4) Chocolate Candy
(5) Stardom Bound
(6) IndygoMountain
(7) Square Eddie
(8) Well Positioned
(9) Hello Broadway (10) Haynesfield

I will throw one in of my own that hasn’t even raced yet! Talk about radical prognostication but I just can’t resist this colt’s bloodlines and dna.

Lael Stable’s NICANOR, the full-brother of 2006 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Florida Derby (G1) winner Barbaro, continues to progress toward his highly anticipated career debut at the end of January or early in February.

“…He’s doing fine. If everything continues to go well he should be starting at the end of the month” said trainer

Barbaro was already 3-for-3 at this point in his career, halfway to his six straight wins.

Until Nicanor starts his own career, the comparisons between the two sons of broodmare La Ville Rouge will be constant. Matz, however, remains restrained.

“They both have individual characteristics at this point,” he said. “They are two different types of horses. Nicanor does look like he could do well on any surface we want to run on. That’s similar.

Three of White’s selections – Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge and Chocolate Candy – competed in the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 20.

Absent from White’s list are a pair of 2-year-old stars, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman and Hopeful Stakes and Champagne Stakes winner Vineyard Haven. “They’re both very talented, but I decided to refrain from including them on my list since they both have been sent to Dubai,”

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Square Eddie, No. 7 on White’s list, is scheduled to make his 2009 debut in the Grade III San Rafael Stakes at one mile on Jan. 17.

“The Bad Cat” Ready For SA Derby – April 2, 2008

#3 EL GATO MALO – Turned in a bullet best of 53 move on March 29 at Hollywood Park in final major work for the Santa Anita Derby. He breezed five furlongs at Hollywood Park in 59⁰ and the West coast clockers rarely give a ‘breezing’ notation so he must have been gliding over the ‘Cushion’. “He did it very easily, although another horse broke out in front of him, so that gave him an unexpected target,” trainer Craig Dollase said. “It was a little quicker than I wanted, but he was very willing, so it worked out OK. We’re right on schedule.”

Pyro Exuberant @ Keeneland – April 2, 2008

#1 PYRO – Finished very strong in March 31 work
(View the March 31, 2008 workout video) as he continues his preparations for the April 12 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. Pyro worked six furlongs in 1:14³ breezing at Keeneland. Exercise rider Dominic Terry was aboard Pyro, who worked in company with stablemate Sonoma Cat. Pyro’s jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, was on Sonoma Cat. The duo raced as a team, hitting the wire together with Pyro on the inside. “I got him galloping out in 1:27³ and the last five-eighths in 1:00⁴,” said assistant trainer Scott Blasi, who supervised the move for trainer Steve Asmussen, who was in Dallas on Monday. Keeneland clockers caught the pair going :23⁰ seconds flat for the final quarter and :11¹
for the last eighth.

The Big Brown Update – April 2, 2008

#2 BIG BROWN – There really aren’t any words to accurately describe what this son of Boundry did in the G1 Florida Derby. First of all, he had to start from post 12 which would be a big disadvantage for most good horses going 9f at Gulfstream. He took off like a rocket from the gate and had to outrun 4 horses inside of him (who were all getting into position early) to get the lead while being wide on the first turn.

He ran the first ^1/4 mile in a blazing :22³. The 3 horses that were close to him at that call ended up finishing 7th, 8th and 10th. Big Brown then clocked the ^1/2 mile in an incredible :45⁴. He then kept motoring on the engine as his early challengers started to fade one by one.

Along came SMOOTH AIR who ran a winning race and actually made a move until Big Brown kicked into another gear. He then hit the 6f split in a wicked 1:10⁰. Most good horses would have had no energy left at this point but Big Brown kept on going and actually pulled away from the field.

He set those fractions and nobody was gaining any ground on him through the stretch. He stopped the clock for the 9 furlongs in 1:48⁰ which was just 2 ticks off the track
record. He was a little green during the stretch run but that is ok considering his lack of experience. He was simply incredible!

Jockey Kent Desormeaux had post race comments…with those “fast fractions he had every right to finish last” and “he cantered along effortlessly all within himself”.

Looked fantastic in his final prep for the Florida Derby.  On March 19 he went 5f in a bullet best of 1:00² at the Palm Meadows  training center.

Big Brown won an “off the turf” race by 12 ^3/4 lengths going a flat mile at Gulfstream and earned a big number doing it. He’s won both career starts by a combined 24 lengths! Although he has had some foot problems he seems to be thriving down at the Palm Meadows training center this year.

In post race comments trainer Dick Dutrow said the undefeated colt was doing well Sunday morning back at his Palm Meadows Training Center barn. The hours after his five-length victory went smoothly and that plans for what comes next would solidify early this week.

Interesting note: Trainer Dick Dutrow had said that he has secured the services of jockey Kent Desormeaux for the Florida Derby, even though Desormeaux had been scheduled to ride on the Dubai World Cup card that same day.

This colt has the pedigree to be a turf superstar but will be given an opportunity on dirt to
be a superstar on any surface.

“I knew he was going to do great on the dirt because I breezed him with Diamond Stripes,
 and (Big Brown) just carried him around the track.” said trainer Dick Dutrow

• VIDEO: Jill Bryne Analysis
• VIDEO: G1 Florida Derby
• VIDEO: Allowance Win (Gulfstream)
• NEXT START: TBA SOON
  

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March 28 Update

#1 PYRO – Obvious early favorite for the Blue Grass Stakes worked 5f in 1:02² March 24 breezing over Keeneland’s main Polytrack and galloped out 6f in 1:15². The work’s time ranked 15th out of 18 but this is of no real concern. The colt is in such good form there really is no need to ask him to do much in the morning. NEXT START – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 12 at Keeneland.

 #2 EL GATO MALO – Worked at Hollywood Park on March 22 going 7 furlongs in 1:24.³ handily. It was the only workout at the distance. “He went real nice, and I had him galloping out a mile in 1:37 and change,” trainer Craig Dollase said. “He worked real well. He came back great and got a lot out of the work.” NEXT START – Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita.

 #3 COOL COAL MAN – On March 24 he worked 4f in :48⁴ at Palm Meadows and the work was labeled ‘handily’. Two things raise a question here. #1 why was there 10 days in between works and #2 if he went :48⁴ handily it means they asked him for something in the work and he did not respond with a fast time at all (even as training track times go). As a 2yo he ran 2 big races as a winner and then bounced when raised in class to the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club which turned out to be a somewhat unimpressive race considering what the top runners in that race went on to do in their careers since then. Now he is coming off of 2 big wins again and appears to be not doing very well. NEXT START – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 12 at Keeneland. 

#4 DENIS OF CORK – On March 22 he worked 5 Furlongs at the Fair Grounds in 1:00⁴ breezing which was ranked 2 of 17. This move was a near perfect 6 days after his previous work. He will get a 9 furlong test next which he needs because as of yet he has not raced beyond 1 mile ⁴⁰ yards. Should be ready to fire his best once again in the Wood Memorial. NEXT START – Illinois Derby (G2) on April 5 at Hawthorne.

#6 WAR PASS – Worked a bullet 4f in :47² on March 27 at Palm Meadows Training Center so perhaps he just didn’t care for the track at Tampa. It’s a quirky track and some horses just can get traction there. Trainer Nick Zito said “He worked fabulous, unbelievable. If you keep making excuses, then you know you’re up against something. But I’ve got to throw that race out. I’ve got to give him another shot. My son Alex said, ‘Hey, Dad, let me ask you a question. What was the fluke — the five in a row or the other one?’”. He’s set to go in the Wood Memorial (G1) April 5 at Aqueduct and might just get a pace advantage in that race. War Pass is very hard to get by when he is on the lead. NEXT START – Wood Memorial (G1) April 5.

#15 FIERCE WIND – Drilled a ‘bullet’ 4f in 46⁴ over the training track at Palm Meadows and seems to be ready to fire his best shot in the Florida Derby Saturday March 29. The worked ranked the best of 13 for the morning which is impressive considering there was some real nice horses that worked 4f. NEXT START – Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 29.

 

“Georgie Boy ‘Flew’ Home To Impressively Take San Felipe”

GEORGIE BOY, George Schwary’s home bred grandson of STORM CAT and, the first foal from the stakes-winning dam IPPODAMIA, was extremely impressive in victory in the Grade 2 San Felipe (1 ^1/16 miles) on March 16 at “The Great Race Place”.  He sat, with Baze’s feet in the dashboard, stalking a rather slow pace (:48³ and 1:13⁰) in the 3rd position all the way around until exploding when asked to make a move. Michael Baze (substituting for the injured Rafael Bejarano) edged GEORGIE’ out when he saw a clear spot at the top of the stretch and the TRIBAL RULE gelding just flew down the lane to nail the win going away by three-quarters of a length. He ran his final 2 ^1/2 furlongs in a swift :29¹ and got his final sixteenth in a blistering :5⁴! After the race Baze had these comments: “Around the far turn, I just had to wait, wait, wait and at the top of the lane, I was able to swing out and say ‘Goodbye.’ He really impressed me more after we hit the wire. I had a harder time pulling him up than I did during the race. I didn’t get him pulled up until the five-eighths pole.” Georgie Boy improved his record to 7-4-2-1, $496,806.

  VIDEO: Grade 2 San Felipe

March 12 Kentucky Derby Contenders Update

      #1 PYRO – Won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby with a steady advance at the Fair Grounds on March 8 going 1 ^1/16 miles. He sat patiently in the second flight despite a slow pace up front. Had to wait for running room down the lane but he took over inside the eighth pole and drew off by 3 lengths. He pretty much reached the front on his own then got a few taps from Bridghmohan as he opened up.
VIDEO: Louisiana Derby (G2)
NEXT START – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 12 at Keeneland

     #5 DENIS OF CORK – The buzz about this colt still continues. It was just announced that he will skip the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Saturday March 15. He will make just one more start before the Kentucky Derby and trainer David Carroll said he would target either the Illinois Derby (G2) or Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 5. Denis worked 5f in 1:01⁰ on March 9 at Fair Grounds. That work was rated 4th best out of 54 for that morning/distance. And Denis worked 5f in 1:01³ breezing on March 2nd at Fair Grounds and this was the 10th best out of 60 to work that morning. It appears as though the Southwest Stakes did not take anything out of him.
  VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis
  VIDEO: Southwest Stakes (G3)
  VIDEO: Allowance Win (Fair Grounds)
  VIDEO: Maiden Win (Churchill Downs)
  NEXT START – Illinois Derby (G2) or Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) on April 5.

     #9 YANKEE BRAVO – This colt seems way underrated. Of all the horses on this top 15 list (plus the 21 horses on the sub list) he has the 3rd best late pace ratings behind PYRO, COLONEL JOHN and BLACKBERRY ROAD. Yankee Bravo won his lone start in Europe and won 2 of 3 here. His only loss is a 3rd place effort behind PYRO. If you read the next paragraph it speaks loudly that YG could be a super dark horse (meant in the slang for  aspirant getting little respect). Got up for 3rd from dead last in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. >>>>>Impressively, this son of YANKEE GENTLEMAN ran a faster final 2 ^1/2 furlongs than PYRO. YG came home in :29³ to PYRO’S :30². Alex Solis, his regular rider, made the trip for this one. This being only his 4th start there is a lot of room for improvement. This colt looks very promising at this point.  Previously he was undefeated after 3 starts including the $150k California Derby going 1 ^1/16 miles at Golden Gate back on January 27.
VIDEO: Louisiana Derby (G2)
  VIDEO: California Derby ($150k)
NEXT START – Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita

      #10 VISIONAIRE – Won the Grade 3 Gotham in the slop at Aqueduct on March 8 with a strong late run. He was the only horse with anything left for the final eighth of a mile as they appeared out of the fog.  On February 9 he finished 3rd to PYRO and Z FORTUNE in the Grade 3 Risen Star and those 2 are obviously very talented.
One thing to note is that he beat ELYSIUM FIELDS as a 2yo to break his maiden
and that one went on to a placing in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Even though his pedigree lends questions to distance limitations, he seems to want more ground and he does have solid late pace numbers so far at 1 mile and 1 ^1/16 miles.
VIDEO: Gotham Stakes (G3)
NEXT START – Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 12 at Keeneland.

ATONED has been pulling it all together with a steady stream of breezes down at the Palm Beach Downs training center. Atoned (by sire REPENT) has quietly compiled a 7-2-4-0 career mark highlighted by his neck defeat to COURT VISION in the G2 Remsen goin 1 ^1/8 miles back in November. He definitely has been training well for 3yo debut for trainer Todd Pletcher and owners Dogwood Stable.

One to watch closely this weekend:

     #11 Z FORTUNE – Was the PYRO/VISIONAIRE sandwich in the Risen Star and that makes him look better than he gets credit for. Finished 2nd best in the Grade 3 Risen Star on February 9 at the Fairgrounds. He did have the lead briefly at the stretch turn but was no match for PYRO down the lane. New York bred was undefeated after 3 starts and got the unusual ship in victory at the Fair Grounds in the Grade 3 Lecomte. This SIPHON colt has good speed but is not a need to lead type. He proved that in the Lecomte.
One fact worth noticing is this son of SIPHON is a PYRO and 2 lengths shy of being
undefeated. He stands at 4-3-1-0 going into the Rebel.
VIDEO: Jill Byrne Analysis
VIDEO: Risen Star Stakes (G3)
VIDEO: Lecomte Stakes (G3)
VIDEO: Allowance Win (Aqueduct)
  VIDEO: Maiden Win (Belmont)
NEXT START – Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 15 at Oaklawn

View the complete list at http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/2008-Kentucky-Derby-Contenders.htm

2008 Kentucky Derby Contenders Update

Kentucky Derby Contenders Updated March 3rd – The top 5 contenders now ranked! Detailed analysis of the current top three year olds for 2008 including Kentucky Derby prep race videos. Also added is a list of those who could make the top list soon.

Kentucky Derby Contenders Update – Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, El Gato Malo, Pyro

COLONEL JOHN – Showed his versatility while pressing a slow pace (:234, :500, 1:142, 1:382) in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on March 1 at Santa Anita going 9 furlongs. His positioning made a big difference as he got the jump on EL GATO MALO at the top of the stretch and hung on for the win by just a 1/2 length. Winstar Farms and Eoin Harty have to be pleased with the win even though he was getting run down by EL GATO MALO late. This was his first start as a 3 year old and should be able to move forward off of this effort as he is pointed for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5. Showed a nice work tab recently including a 7f bullet on February 19 and a 5f drill in :58.3 (bullet best of 60 that morning for 5f) at Hollywood Park on February 7. Got up for 2nd in the Grade 1 $750,000 Cash Call Futurity going 1 1/16 miles over the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park on December 22. Won the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at the same distance and track in November. This son of TIZNOW has an awesome late kick and is bred top and bottom (TURKOMAN – damsire) to run a classic distance.
 
VIDEO: Sham Stakes (G3)
 
VIDEO: Cash Call Futurity (G1)

NEXT START – Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita

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COOL COAL MAN – This colt has shown the ability to stalk the pace no matter how fast or slow it is dictated by the early leaders. That run style should prove to be a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby where a clean trip means a lot. “COOL” Burst on to the scene with a game victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth by a 1/2 length. He sat second flight in the race and was just 2 lengths back at the 2nd call. Took over on the stretch turn and fended off a gritty ELYSIUM FIELDS down the lane. He improved his final time for 9 furlongs by 8 lengths over his 3yo debut at Gulfstream (also a win) in a 2nd level allowance event on January 26. Has 2 wins as a 2yo before coming up rank in the Jockey Club Stakes. Nick Zito has this son of MINESHAFT on his best game right now and there is the nagging question whether or not he has peaked to early or just beat a bunch that needed the race. If he’s really that good it won’t matter.Owned by Robert Lapenta who also has WAR PASS.

VIDEO: Fountain of Youth (G2)
 
VIDEO: Allowance Race at Gulfstream Park (Jan 26)
 
VIDEO: Allowance Race at Churchill Downs (Nov 3)NEXT START – Florida Derby (G1) on March 15 at Gulfstream

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EL GATO MALO – Showed his usual relaxed running style as he sat behind the slow pace (:234, :500, 1:142, 1:382) in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on March 1 at Santa Anita going 9 furlongs. Because “THE CAT” had to find room late, COLONEL JOHN got the jump on him for the stretch run. He was running down that rival late and even though he finished 2nd he did look like he was going best. A very big race is expected next for this very talented colt. He is pointed for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5. Has been sharp in the am. On February 15 “The Cat” worked 6f in a nice 1:11.4 over the Santa Anita main track.On February 9 he worked 5 furlongs in :58.3 breezing at Hollywood Park. The West coast clockers rarely give the “breezing” notation so this work was exceptional. EL GATO MALO is Spanish for “The Bad Cat”, is the gelded son of EL CORREDOR and is undefeated after 3 career starts. Of those three include the Grade 3 San Rafael going 1 mile on January 12 at Santa Anita (a track record performance) and the 1 mile $75k Gold Rush at Golden Gate on December 15. He has not been asked to run his best yet which means there’s no telling how good he really can be. Very promising.
 
VIDEO: Sham Stakes (G3)
 
VIDEO: San Rafael (G3)NEXT START – Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5 at Santa Anita

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PYRO – Worked 6 furlongs at the Fair Grounds in 1:140 breezing which was a bullet best of 6 on the morning of February 25. He should be absolutely wound tight and ready to fire like a rocket late in the Grade 3 Louisiana Derby. Won the Grade 3 Risen Star on February 9 at the Fairgrounds. He was very impressive in victory as he was dead last as they turned for home and then weaved in and out of horses like they were standing still. Pyro came home the last 1/4 in a fierce 22.3! “Unbelievable,” jockey Shaun Bridghmohan said, watching the replay of the stretch run afterward. “I never even hit him.” It was more impressive seeing that he made such a great late move coming off a slow pace. He’s been training with stablemete CURLIN which might just be a genius decision by trainer Steve Asmussen. Had a nice 2yo season finishing 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in the Grade 1 Champagne. This PULPIT colt has never finished off the board in 5 career starts. He obviously has a very strong late move and has the ability to lay 2nd flight off of a fast pace.

VIDEO: Risen Star Stakes (G3)
 
VIDEO: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

NEXT START – Fair Grounds Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 8 at Fair Grounds.

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Fountain of Youth Aftermath: Is Cool Coal Man Really This Good?

That is the question in the aftermath of the mild upset in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 24th at Gulfstream Park. The favored and very highly regarded MONBA finished dead last some 39 3/4 lengths back. The very impressive one start wonder with the high ratings, KENTUCKY BEAR, finished 7th. Top 10 Kentucky Derby contender (as seen by many experts) ANAK NAKAL finished 8th. And second choice COURT VISION ran an unimpressive 3rd after passing tired rivals. The owner of the FoY winner COOL COAL MAN is the same as the champion WAR PASS, Robert LaPenta who has Nick Zito training both. Speaking of WAR PASS, it must be said that he looked fantastic in his 3yo debut albeit versus allowance foes. It was actually the race immediately following the Fountain of Youth. He was razor sharp under rider Cornelio Velasquez who sat motionless throughout. Did MONBA get injured during the race? Did ANAK NAKAL simply need this race? Did KENTUCKY BEAR ‘bounce’? Did COURT VISION run his best or did he need the race as well? So with all of that being said, is COOL COAL MAN really this good? Only the upcoming several weeks will tell.

Coming up next: The Sham Stakes at Santa Anita going 1 1/8 miles featuring COLONEL JOHN and EL GATO MALO and the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway going 1 1/16 miles. Both on March 1. And the following week, March 8, is The Gotham Stakes (1 mile) featuring GIANT MOON at Aqueduct and the Louisiana Derby featuring PYRO, BLACKBERRY ROAD and Z FORTUNE going 1 1/16 miles down at The Fair Grounds.